Thanks to GamePolitics.com we are now privy to the knowledge that Bill O’Reilly thinks that PS3, Xbox and iPod use contributes to the downfall of the United States.

If the overblown FOX hack lunatic had any credibility to lose, he lost it with this:

I don’t own an iPod. I would never wear an iPod… If this is your primary focus in life - the machines… it’s going to have a staggeringly negative effect, all of this, for America… did you ever talk to these computer geeks? I mean, can you carry on a conversation with them? …I really fear for the United States because, believe me, the jihadists? They’re not playing the video games. They’re killing real people over there.

Note to O’Reilly: your premium content pay site offers podcasts for download.

AAPL 88.17 +1.70

as of around 2:35 East Coast Time today, on speculation of an impending iPhone announcement.

This is a followup to my earlier blog entry titled Zune Birth: Does it Already Suck?

And now to explore the other avenue: Zune won’t suck. It will take some market share from the iPod, and “cannibalize” perhaps half of the other 30% of the market. I use the term “cannibalize” because there’s the iPod, and there’s the others. This is not snobbery; everybody’s gunning for the iPod. To wit, a Google search for “iPod killer” shows over four million pages indexed.

Competition is good.
iPod and iTunes Store pricing is then likely to feel a little more downward pressure than it would otherwise, and iPod storage capacity might creep up a bit faster than it would without the major league competition of the Zune.

Apple stock will suffer, and feelings will be hurt. Bragging rights will be split evenly between the good guys and the bad guys. Hands will be wrung, and blogging revenge will be exacted for years.

Ancillary Effects
Interestingly, even if iPod sales are halved or worse, it will have fulfilled its quiet mission: to sell Macs. Although the margins on Macs are not as lucrative as the margins on iPods, Apple is first and foremost a PC company, and selling more of its core product is always a good thing.

In addition, the iPod, once beaten back to less than half marketshare (let’s face it, it will happen one day), will have helped Apple see that the Mac is still the center of people’s electronic lives, with music entertainment, video entertainment and the like playing related but ultimately satellite roles for the foreseeable future.

Plug: buy an iPod Shuffle from Amazon and help this site.

So what about Zune in terms of the Big Zune Question: what will the rebadged Toshiba Gigabeat do to the iPod?

There’s two possibilities: something and nothing.

Let’s explore those avenues. First, nothing: Zune will suck. Apple stock will continue to rise, both literally and metaphorically. iTunes Music Store and the iPod will continue to rule the marketplace because no amount of MS R&D and marketing muscle can buy a simple Microsoft product. None. That’s because Microsoft has always suffered from feature bloat, and this decades-long affliction shows no sign of letting up.

Case in point: Zune’s wireless song transfer capability. Great feature, right? Well yea, on a planet where the RIAA’s lawyers don’t roam. But here on Earth, music’s gatekeepers watch “music lifestyle” companies like Apple and Microsoft like a hawk. So a very promising feature becomes a tantilizing joke:

One of the features that Microsoft has been pushing as a key differentiator is its Zune to Zune WiFi feature. They have enabled the limited sharing of songs, recordings, playlists and pictures with others. Tracks received from another person can be played for up to three days or three plays, whichever comes first, after which it will need to be purchased via the Zune Marketplace. These limits are not only applied to Zune Marketplace music, but to all songs, without exception.

[wikipedia]

Ah, nothing like a constant reminder that you’re just this much DRM away from having an unlimited, untethered wireless song transfer wonderland between you and fellow Zune users. As it is, this feature is more like those small, dashboard plastic cover caps that hide options you didn’t get in your car. In other words, the silly 3-day limit will forever remind you of the possibilities of open file trading, but never allow it.

There’s been much criticism about other Zune aspects too, like the much-touted screen being bigger than the iPod’s. The truth is that yes, it is bigger, but they both have the same resolution. Again, something good (bigger) being applied as a gloss over a wash (same resolution). And Zune’s dimensions become somewhat larger than the iPod’s as a result of the bigger screen.

Can Microsoft’s version of the iTunes Music Store be as easy to use and provide the no-thinking-required integration between iTMS and the iPod? Time will tell.

And one last point: has MS’s Plays for Sure fiasco (Plays for Sure media does not play on Zunes) damaged the Zune marketplace even before Zune sees its release date? Obviously this is the case. Anyone locked out of playing their files “For Sure” on this MP3 player is simply not going to buy one.
So will it suck? And if so, and even more importantly, will it suck for long? Will Microsoft dial in on Apple’s five year lead? The Zune did come from the crack Xbox team, after all.

For answers to these and other important questions, check back for my next blog entry: Yes, The Zune Will Do Something To The iPod.

Plug: Buy your Zune with these links and help AS.

A guy found that Best Buy would sell him a (brown) Zune early. So he bought it, took it home, and the install crashed. Hmmm.

And this is where i leave you right now. The Zune already drawn its first blood; me. I cant install it for some reason, and i tried everything. If you have any suggestions or ideas, please leave a comment.

from a comment

Oh, it says “Hello From Seattle” because Microsoft is based in Redmond, and they want to be hip. Unfortunately, that isn’t possible. Ever. Sad really, no more so pathetic.

Redmond Washington, Microsoft’s HQ and campus’ location, is mind-numbingly bedroom-communityish (if well-planned and relatively bicycle friendly). They are right to borrow 15-mile-away Seattle as their hometown.

And what’s up with that image? Bizarre. It looks like a scene of both terror and ecstasy.